Hafiz. M. Azeem
Energy
Crisis in Pakistan
“What
does ‘LOL’ stand for in Pakistan?
‘Lots-of-Load
shedding’.”
“Why
isn’t anyone intervening in Africa (as in Middle East)? It’s the layer of oil
on Middle East … otherwise it’d have been no different than Africa.”
- Former
NATO chief, Gen. Wesley Clark, 2007
General (rtd) Wesley Clark, one time Supreme Allied
Commander of NATO, admits that US and Europe's intervention in Middle East –
initiative of multiple regime changes in around seven countries through direct
and indirect wars – is primarily to gain control over oil resources by Western
powers. Control over energy has become a cause of wars among nations, only
indicating how critically important this resources are. One cannot imagine a
tomorrow devoid of energy in modern world.
Pakistan is energy-deficient. It
has failed to contain its energy crisis; failing to increase supply
proportionately and conserving demand.
The songs of ‘all is well’ were sung by the
planners, and now we are in a quagmire where no short-term solution can work.
Despite being rich in
energy resources of oil, coal, wind water and solar energy, the country still
relies on foreign aid to improve its energy sector and to settle the increasing
gap between the energy demand and supply.
Now the real question which comes to mind is that
were the people in the government sleeping for the past 14 years? Did they not realize
that the power needs of the country would increase? (Which has increased by
about 500 megawatts annually) and so for that they needed to make sure that
some power projects were launched ensure the country didn’t face this power
problem?
There’s no use in crying over spilt milk so talking about should have happened won’t change anything.
There’s no use in crying over spilt milk so talking about should have happened won’t change anything.
1 Introduction:
Energy is considered to be life line of any economy and most vital instrument of socioeconomic development of a country. Energy is pivotal in running machinery in factories and industrial units, for lighting our cities and powering our vehicles etc.
Energy is considered to be life line of any economy and most vital instrument of socioeconomic development of a country. Energy is pivotal in running machinery in factories and industrial units, for lighting our cities and powering our vehicles etc.
There has been an enormous increase
in the demand of energy as a result of industrial development and population
growth, in comparison to enhancement in energy production. Supply of energy is,
therefore, far less than the actual demand, resultantly crisis has emerged. An
energy crisis can be defined as any great bottleneck (or price rise) in the
supply of energy resources to an economy.
2. Pakistan’s Energy Sector:
2. Pakistan’s Energy Sector:
Pakistan’s energy infrastructure is
not well developed, rather it is considered to be underdeveloped and poorly
managed. Currently the country is facing severe energy crisis. Despite of
strong economic growth and rising energy demand during past decade, no serious
efforts have been made to install new capacity of generation. Moreover, rapid
demand growth, transmission losses due to outdated infrastructure, power theft,
and seasonal reductions in the availability of hydropower have worsened the
situation. Consequently, the demand exceeds supply and hence load-shedding is a
common phenomenon through power shutdown.
2.1 Energy Supply:
During 2009-10, Energy supply and per capita availability of energy witnessed a decline of 0.64 % and 3.09 % respectively in comparison to previous year.
Pakistan needs around 15,000 to 20000 MW electricity per day, however, currently it is able to produce about 11,500 MW per day hence there is a shortfall of about 4000 to 9000 MW per day. This shortage is badly hampering the economic growth of the country.
2.2 Energy Consumption:
Pakistan’s energy consumption is met by mix of gas, oil, electricity, coal and LPG sources with different level of shares. Share of gas consumption stood at 43.7 %, followed by oil 29.0 percent, electricity 15.3 percent, coal 10.4 percent and LPG 1.5 percent.
3. Sources of Energy in Pakistan:
3.1 Non-renewable resources (Fossil fuels)
Non-renewable resources are primarily fossil fuels emanating from remains/decomposition of animals and plants deposited deep into the earth crust and converted into oil and gas. These resources cannot be replenished. There are three main types of fossil fuels: coal, petroleum, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
2.1 Energy Supply:
During 2009-10, Energy supply and per capita availability of energy witnessed a decline of 0.64 % and 3.09 % respectively in comparison to previous year.
Pakistan needs around 15,000 to 20000 MW electricity per day, however, currently it is able to produce about 11,500 MW per day hence there is a shortfall of about 4000 to 9000 MW per day. This shortage is badly hampering the economic growth of the country.
2.2 Energy Consumption:
Pakistan’s energy consumption is met by mix of gas, oil, electricity, coal and LPG sources with different level of shares. Share of gas consumption stood at 43.7 %, followed by oil 29.0 percent, electricity 15.3 percent, coal 10.4 percent and LPG 1.5 percent.
3. Sources of Energy in Pakistan:
3.1 Non-renewable resources (Fossil fuels)
Non-renewable resources are primarily fossil fuels emanating from remains/decomposition of animals and plants deposited deep into the earth crust and converted into oil and gas. These resources cannot be replenished. There are three main types of fossil fuels: coal, petroleum, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
a).
Petroleum products:
In 2009-10, consumption of petroleum
products was 29% of total share of energy. Majority of crude oil is imported
from gulf countries to meet the demand. Power, industry and transport sectors
consume higher quantity of petroleum followed by agriculture and house holds.
Petroleum is also used in generation of electricity, which counts 64 percent of
total electricity generation (34 coming from hydro generation). Balance
recoverable reserves of crude oil in country have been estimated at 303.63
million barrels and we are extracting approximately 24 million crude oil
annually, meaning if we do not explore new wells, we will exhaust our current
crude oil reserves in 12-13 years.
b).
Natural Gas:
Importance of natural gas is
increasing rapidly. Average production of natural gas is 4,048.76 million cubic
feet per day as against 3,986.53 million during corresponding last year,
showing an increase of 1.56 percent. Natural gas is used in general industry to
prepare consumer items, to produce cement, for manufacturing fertilizers and to
generate electricity. In form of CNG, it is used in transport sector. Share of
natural gas in energy consumption is 43.7 percent. Due to price differential
between CNG and Petrol, vehicles are using converted to CNG and approximately 2.0
million vehicles are using CNG and currently Pakistan is the largest CNG user
country in the world. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) contributes around 0.7
percent to total energy supply in country and is being imported to stop
deforestation in hilly areas.
c).
Coal:
Pakistan has coal reserves estimated
at over 185 billion tonnes, including 175 billion tonnes identified at Thar
coalfields. Coal is primarily being used in brick kiln and cement industries
and approximately 67 percent coal is imported because indigenous coal is not
considered of good quality.
Guddu plant is largest plant thermal operated plant with a capacity of 1,650 MW, while two largest Independent Power Plants (IPPs) in Pakistan are Kot Addu (1,600 MW) and Hubb River (1,300 MW).
3.2 Renewable Resources : (Unlimited – sustainable – clean)
Renewable energy resources are those, which are naturally replenished and comes from resources such as water, sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat.
Guddu plant is largest plant thermal operated plant with a capacity of 1,650 MW, while two largest Independent Power Plants (IPPs) in Pakistan are Kot Addu (1,600 MW) and Hubb River (1,300 MW).
3.2 Renewable Resources : (Unlimited – sustainable – clean)
Renewable energy resources are those, which are naturally replenished and comes from resources such as water, sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat.
a).
Hydro power:
Hydro power is generated by using
electricity generators to extract energy from moving water. Pakistan is having
rich resource of energy in hydal power, however, only 34 % of total electricity
generation is coming from hydro power. Currently we are having 6555 MW against
the potential of 41000 to 45000 MW.
Current
Hydropower stations:
Tarbella Dam : 3,478 MW
Ghazi Brotha: 1450 MW
Mangla 1,000 MW
Warsak 240 MW
Chashma 184 MW
Ghazi Brotha: 1450 MW
Mangla 1,000 MW
Warsak 240 MW
Chashma 184 MW
Potential
Hydropower stations:
Diamer-Bhasha Dam 4500 MW
Munda Dam – Swat river in Mohamand Agency 740 MW
Kalabagh Dam 2400-3600 MW
Bunji Dam 5400 MW
Dasu Dam 3800 MW
Diamer-Bhasha Dam 4500 MW
Munda Dam – Swat river in Mohamand Agency 740 MW
Kalabagh Dam 2400-3600 MW
Bunji Dam 5400 MW
Dasu Dam 3800 MW
3.3 Alternative Sources of Energy :
a).
Wind:
Wind power harnesses the power of
the wind to propel the blades of wind turbines. These turbines cause the
rotation of magnets, which creates electricity. Though Pakistan has potentials
of wind energy ranging from 10000 MW to 50000 MW, yet power generation through
wind is in initial stages in Pakistan and currently 06 MW has been installed in
first phase in Jhampir through a Turkish company and 50 MW will be installed
shortly. More wind power plants will be built in Jhampir, Gharo, Keti Bandar
and Bin Qasim Karachi.
b).
Solar :
Solar power involves using solar
cells to convert sunlight into electricity, using sunlight hitting solar
thermal panels to convert sunlight to heat water or air. Pakistan has potential
of more than 100,000 MW from solar energy. Building of solar power plants is
underway in Kashmir, Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan. However, private vendors
are importing panels / solar water heaters for consumption in the market.
Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) is working for 20,000 solar water
heaters in Gilgit Baltistan. Mobile companies have been asked by the government
to shift supply of energy to their transmission towers from petroleum to solar
energy panels.
c).
Agricultural biomass /biodiesel :
Biomass production involves using
garbage or other renewable resources such as sugarcane, corn or other
vegetation to generate electricity. When garbage decomposes, methane is
produced and captured in pipes and later burned to produce electricity.
Vegetation and wood can be burned directly to generate energy, like fossil
fuels, or processed to form alcohols. Brazil has one of the largest renewable
energy programs from biomass/biodiesel in the world, followed by USA.
Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) of Pakistan has planned to generate
10 MW of electricity from municipal waste in Karachi followed by similar
projects in twenty cities of country.
d).
Tidal:
Tidal power can be extracted from
Moon-gravity-powered tides by locating a water turbine in a tidal current. The
turbine can turn an electrical generator, or a gas compressor, that can then
store energy until needed. Coastal tides are a source of clean, free,
renewable, and sustainable energy.
Plans are underway in Pakistan to harness tidal energy, however, no implementation has been made so far.
Plans are underway in Pakistan to harness tidal energy, however, no implementation has been made so far.
3.4
Nuclear:
Nuclear power stations use nuclear
fission reaction to generate energy by the reaction of uranium inside a nuclear
reactor. Pakistan has a small nuclear power program, with 425 MW capacity, but
there are plans to increase this capacity substantially.
Since Pakistan is outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it is excluded from trade in nuclear plant or materials, which hinders its development of civil nuclear energy. Remaining issues in development of nuclear energy are enricment of uranium from U235 to U238, controlling chain reaction and dumping of solid waste.
Since Pakistan is outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it is excluded from trade in nuclear plant or materials, which hinders its development of civil nuclear energy. Remaining issues in development of nuclear energy are enricment of uranium from U235 to U238, controlling chain reaction and dumping of solid waste.
Pakistan
Nuclear Power Reactors
Reactor Type MW Construction started Commercial operation
Karachi PHWR 125 1966 1972
Chashma 1 PWR 300 1993 2000
Chashma 2 PWR 300 2005 expected 2011
Total 425 MW
Karachi PHWR 125 1966 1972
Chashma 1 PWR 300 1993 2000
Chashma 2 PWR 300 2005 expected 2011
Total 425 MW
* Pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) - Canadian based
reactors
** Pressurized water reactor (PWR) – Chinese based reactors
** Pressurized water reactor (PWR) – Chinese based reactors
4. Causes of Energy Crisis : Pakistan’s energy crisis traces its roots to following
distinct causes :
Growing Energy Demand
·
over the years there is greater need of energy
because of;
Increase in population,
enhancement in lifestyle
industrial and agricultural growth
greater transportation needs
enhancement in lifestyle
industrial and agricultural growth
greater transportation needs
- Lack of proactive and integrated planning for production of energy:
Pakistan has had wider potentials to
tap energy, however, due to lack of any integrated/proactive planning, very
less number of power producing plant were installed to meet futuristic demands.
Resultantly, over the years, the gap between energy demand and supply
drastically grew and now against demand of 20000 MW, we are having around 11500
MW.
- Imbalanced energy mix
Energy mix in Pakistan is quite
imbalance in comparison to other countries, with greater reliance on
non-renewable resources of gas (43.7 %) and oil (29 % - majority of which is
imported). Prices of petroleum products/crude oil fluctuate and in current
Afro-Arab political crisis, the oil prices are likely to increase manifold
affecting oil prices in Pakistan.
A rational energy mix planning ought to be developed giving greater dependency to renewable (hydel power), indigenous (coal) and alternative energy resources (wind and solar energy). Nuclear energy can
A rational energy mix planning ought to be developed giving greater dependency to renewable (hydel power), indigenous (coal) and alternative energy resources (wind and solar energy). Nuclear energy can
- Non-utilization of enormous indigenous energy resources:
Thar
Coal:
§ Pakistan is having one of the largest coal fields in Thar,
having reserves of more than 175 billion tones, which exceeds equivalent oil
reserves of Saudi Arabia, Iran etc.
§ In addition to power generation, this coal can be used for chemical and fertilizer production.
§ Moreover, employment provided to workforce can be instrumental in increasing GDP and economic prosperity to many families.
§ In addition to power generation, this coal can be used for chemical and fertilizer production.
§ Moreover, employment provided to workforce can be instrumental in increasing GDP and economic prosperity to many families.
Hydal
power generation:
§ Pakistan has potential of hydro resources to generate 41000
to 45000 MW, however, only 6555 MW is currently being generated by this
important renewable resource.
§ Four large hydro power dams namely Kalabagh 3600 MW, Bhasha 4500 MW, Bunji 5400 MW and Dasu 3800 MW can be constructed to generate hydro electricity.
§ Similarly, many small to medium hydro plants can be installed on rivers and canals etc.
§ Four large hydro power dams namely Kalabagh 3600 MW, Bhasha 4500 MW, Bunji 5400 MW and Dasu 3800 MW can be constructed to generate hydro electricity.
§ Similarly, many small to medium hydro plants can be installed on rivers and canals etc.
5. Consequences of Energy Crisis:
i). Economic Factors: Energy is pivotal for running all other resources and crisis of energy directly influences all other sectors of the economy. The economic progress is hampered by decline in agricultural productivity as well as by halting in operations of industries. One important factor of lower GDP and inflation of commodity prices in recent years is attributed to shortfalls in energy supply.
ii). Agriculture Sector: Agricultural productivity of Pakistan is decreasing due to provision of energy for running tube wells, agricultural machinery and production of fertilizers and pesticides. Thus higher energy means higher agricultural productivity.
iii). Industrial Sector: Nearly all Industrial units are run with the energy and breakage in energy supply is having dire consequences on industrial growth. As a result of decline in energy supply, industrial units are not only being opened, but also the existing industrial units are gradually closing.
iv). Unemployment: By closure of industrial units and less agricultural productivity, new employment opportunities ceased to exist and already employed manpower is shredded by the employers to increase their profit ratios. Thus energy crisis contributes towards unemployment.
v). Social Issues: This factor is primarily related to the domestic usage of energy (cooking, heating and water provision). Load shedding cause unrest and frustration amongst the people and results in agitation against the government.
vi). Poverty: Declination in economic growth, lower agricultural productivity, unemployment and shackling industrial growth result in increasing poverty. Currently, around forty percent of our population is living beyond poverty line and this ratio is increasing day by day. Ample control of energy crisis will surely yield in curbing the menace of poverty.
6. Conclusion:
Energy Crisis has, more or less, plagued all sectors of Pakistan’s machinery ranging from economy to industry, agriculture to social life, inflation to poverty and it is hampering national progress in a drastic manner. Nonetheless, menace of energy crisis can be overwhelmed by government through making effective policies and its proactive implementation. Simultaneously, it is the responsibility of us, the people of Pakistan, to utilize the available energy astutely and wisely to play our due role for progress of the country.
7. Recommendations/Solutions of Energy Crisis :
Energy crisis can be curtailed by :
i). Economic Factors: Energy is pivotal for running all other resources and crisis of energy directly influences all other sectors of the economy. The economic progress is hampered by decline in agricultural productivity as well as by halting in operations of industries. One important factor of lower GDP and inflation of commodity prices in recent years is attributed to shortfalls in energy supply.
ii). Agriculture Sector: Agricultural productivity of Pakistan is decreasing due to provision of energy for running tube wells, agricultural machinery and production of fertilizers and pesticides. Thus higher energy means higher agricultural productivity.
iii). Industrial Sector: Nearly all Industrial units are run with the energy and breakage in energy supply is having dire consequences on industrial growth. As a result of decline in energy supply, industrial units are not only being opened, but also the existing industrial units are gradually closing.
iv). Unemployment: By closure of industrial units and less agricultural productivity, new employment opportunities ceased to exist and already employed manpower is shredded by the employers to increase their profit ratios. Thus energy crisis contributes towards unemployment.
v). Social Issues: This factor is primarily related to the domestic usage of energy (cooking, heating and water provision). Load shedding cause unrest and frustration amongst the people and results in agitation against the government.
vi). Poverty: Declination in economic growth, lower agricultural productivity, unemployment and shackling industrial growth result in increasing poverty. Currently, around forty percent of our population is living beyond poverty line and this ratio is increasing day by day. Ample control of energy crisis will surely yield in curbing the menace of poverty.
6. Conclusion:
Energy Crisis has, more or less, plagued all sectors of Pakistan’s machinery ranging from economy to industry, agriculture to social life, inflation to poverty and it is hampering national progress in a drastic manner. Nonetheless, menace of energy crisis can be overwhelmed by government through making effective policies and its proactive implementation. Simultaneously, it is the responsibility of us, the people of Pakistan, to utilize the available energy astutely and wisely to play our due role for progress of the country.
7. Recommendations/Solutions of Energy Crisis :
Energy crisis can be curtailed by :
i).
Reducing unnecessary energy use:
o Usage of electricity saving
devices
o Awareness campaign for energy saving
o Reduction in unnecessary transportations by developing good public transport systems and strengthening Pakistan railways
o Reduction in industrial uses with installation of effective equipment/ energy efficient and with increasing efficiency of workforce (cost effective)
o Decreasing reliance on rental power projects, because instead of doing any good, they are increasing prices of electricity.
o Decreasing line losses by using efficient power transmission cables
o Awareness campaign for energy saving
o Reduction in unnecessary transportations by developing good public transport systems and strengthening Pakistan railways
o Reduction in industrial uses with installation of effective equipment/ energy efficient and with increasing efficiency of workforce (cost effective)
o Decreasing reliance on rental power projects, because instead of doing any good, they are increasing prices of electricity.
o Decreasing line losses by using efficient power transmission cables
ii). Developing
new energy resources:
o Tapping indigenous resources (Thar coal)
o Using renewable resources (water) by constructing new dams and hydro power plants
o Import of natural gas by IPI (Iran Pakistan India) and TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India) pipelines
o Import of electricity from Tajikistan -through Pak Afghan Tajikistan transmission- and Iran (approximately 1000 MW from each of them) pipelines
o Using renewable resources (water) by constructing new dams and hydro power plants
o Import of natural gas by IPI (Iran Pakistan India) and TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India) pipelines
o Import of electricity from Tajikistan -through Pak Afghan Tajikistan transmission- and Iran (approximately 1000 MW from each of them) pipelines
o Utilizing alternative energy resources :
§ Wind power
§ Biodiesel /Biomass
§ Solar
§ Tidal
§ Biodiesel /Biomass
§ Solar
§ Tidal
o Enhancing civilian nuclear capacity
8. References:
8. References:
- Economic Survey of Pakistan 2009-10
- Fact File : Energy Crisis in Pakistan June 2008 – Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)
- Energy Demand in Pakistan: A Disaggregate Analysis by Muhammad Arshad Khan, Senor Research Economist & Usman Ahmed, Staff Economist, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad
- CSS Forum - CSS Examination Preparation & Civil Service of Pakistan
- Wikipedia
- energy crisis: what can we do?
- How to survive the energy crisis in Pakistan » Overseas Pakistani Friends